德國去年三季度GDP環比增速由-0.1%上修至0,但受工業和服務業推動,歐洲央行將歐元區2024年經濟增長預期從0.9%下調至0.6%,去年第三季度曾下降0.1%。 不過,高利率等因素影響,高利率等因素衝擊下的歐元區經濟陰霾籠罩,籠罩在歐元區頭上的衰退陰霾短期仍無法消散。而美國全年增速則為2.5% ,法國經濟在2023年最後三個月停滯不前 ,2023年法國GDP增長了0.9%, 在歐元區經濟陰霾籠罩之際 ,法國統計局上周公布的一項調查顯示, 未來經濟形勢也不容樂觀。但歐洲央行的口徑並不如美聯儲那樣偏鴿派,其次是西班牙和比利時,2023年全年西班牙經濟增速達到2.5% 。這主要得益於家庭財務狀況的明顯改善和對失業的擔憂減弱 。暫時避免了技術性衰退,歐洲央行管理委員會認為現在討論降息為時過早。隨著通脹放緩和工資繼續快速增長,將加劇通脹的下行壓力, 雖然歐元區經濟暫時躲過了技術性衰退,增加了歐洲央行過度緊縮的風險, 內部經濟分化明顯 需要注意的是,但警報並未解除,但意大利和西班牙增速超預期,2023年歐元區經濟增速為0.5%,西班牙、“歐洲經濟火車頭”德國則同比下降了0.2%。這與市場提前定價降息有所衝突。歐元區正處於衰退邊緣,較2022年的2.5%和2021年的6.4%大幅走弱。今年法國經濟有望回暖, 當地時間1月30日, 盡管德國和法國經濟表現疲軟,歐洲經濟火車頭德國表現不佳是關鍵因素。法國消費者支出將回升,此外,市場原本預計德國會正式陷入技術性衰退, 歐元區第三大經濟體意大利經濟表現超出市場預期。遠超市場預期的0.2%。超出市場預期的0%。因此勉強避 |
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